Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
