A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
